"Croatian scenario" for Ukraine

Sergei Kirichuk
”Europe doesn't really want a new world war, as our Ukrainian frenzied nationalist intelligentsia hopes”


After the Malaysian passenger plane crash, the Ukrainian social networks were filled with statements expressing the confidence that NATO troops would quickly enter Ukraine. It was a clear suicide call from the Ukrainian patriotic public addressed to new invaders of our times -- "Come and take us! Make our country a battlefield of World War III! And as soon as possible!"

Time passed, and the crash of the Boeing was forgotten. Neither the United States nor the EU nor Russia have provided any conclusive evidence that would shed light on the causes of the tragedy. However, the dream of NATO invasion has not left the Ukrainian patriotic public, which still hopes for some miraculous rearmament at the expense of the Western countries -- a kind of "Wunderwaffe, " which would crush the rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Among the philistines, it's become popular to think of the Balkan War, when an upgraded, well-financed and NATO-equipped Croatian army destroyed the Republic of Serbian Krajina. Moreover, the fact that the operation resulted in the killing and expulsion of tens of thousands of local residents (and had all the features of an organized genocide), doesn’t disturb, but rather pleases the Ukrainian patriots.

Ukrainian blogger Taras Zagorodnii writes: "It seems that the Croatian scenario is being realized. Croats also signed a “truce”. But then the West pumped up the Croatian army with weapons and raised the number of soldiers to 200,000 out of a population of 3 million. Then this army overthrew the Serbs in two days."

Wonderful perspective, isn't it? However, the respected political scientist forgets to mention that the damage from the war in Croatia, according to official data, was - $37 billion. The country lost more than 20,000 dead, and many more thousands raped, maimed and wounded. It's also useful to recall the ethnic cleansing which resulted in hundreds of thousands of people becoming refugees – that’s why the Croatian generals are arrested now by Europe itself - for crimes against humanity.

But most importantly, some people in Ukraine still do not realize that European public opinion is opposed to the escalation of the conflict, and the invasion of NATO forces in Ukraine may lead to a deep crisis in the political life of the EU. Although, the arms supplies to the Ukrainian regime are possible, but it can only be guaranteed by the still unlikely victory of the "War Party" in the EU. 

Yes, the European and American politicians provoked the emergence and development of this bloody conflict, supporting the coup in Kiev and the aggressive right-wing government which seized power in Ukraine. Yes, they pushed the regime to aggressive actions in the East, instead of seeking compromise and negotiations with disgruntled compatriots. Yes, the scenario was aimed at weakening Russia and making Ukraine more attractive for European businesses - and that's why a direct conflict between NATO and Russia in the name of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is unreal. Because Europe does not really want a new world war, as our frenzied nationalist intelligentsia hopes for some reasons.

Any attempt to implement the "Croatian scenario" in the Donbass can quickly escalate into a full-fledged pan-European slaughter.

So instead of making Napoleonic plans, our political scientists and politicians should be thinking about possible ways out of the crisis and the establishment of peace - but that is an item you are unlikely to find in their current agenda.

Sergei Kirichuk

Source: Liva

Translation: Gregg Butterfield

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